Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) — Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis
Rodriguez Zapatero plans to call for a March 9 election today,
triggering a campaign likely to focus on the end of a decade-long
economic boom and renewed separatist violence.
Mariano Rajoy, leader of the opposition Peoples Party,
already is on the attack, blaming the economic slowdown on
Zapateros Socialist government and calling him weak on
terrorism.
The race is a rematch of the 2004 election. Polls show
Zapatero, 47, slightly ahead of Rajoy, 52. A survey published
Jan. 8 by newspaper Publico had the Socialists leading the PP by
43 percent to 38.5 percent. A Sigma Dos Jan. 2 poll put Zapatero
ahead by 2.5 points, about half his 2004 winning margin.
“Zapatero has more chance of losing now than he did three
months ago, said Rafael Pampillon, head of the economics
department at Madrids Institute of Business. “He should have
called early elections.
The official two-week campaign, when party advertisements
and rallies are permitted, is scheduled to start Feb. 23. Both
candidates have agreed to two debates, which would be the first
in a Spanish national election since 1993.
The centerpiece of Rajoys campaign likely will be the
economic slowdown. In 2004, the Socialists inherited an economy
in its 11th year of growth. Unemployment and inflation were
declining and the budget was almost balanced.
Budget Surplus
Under Zapatero, the government delivered a budget surplus
for three years, reduced unemployment to a 29-year low of 8
percent and extended an expansion that allowed Spain to surpass
Italy in terms of wealth per capita.
Now, a long real-estate boom that helped double the size of
Spains economy in six years is faltering, and other industries
have failed to make up for the construction slump.
Surging energy and food prices pushed inflation to 4.3
percent, the highest in 12 years. Unemployment is rising and the
doubling of European interest rates since 2004 has led to
declining home prices for the first time in more than a decade.
The European Commission predicts economic growth will ease to 3
percent this year, the slowest pace since 2002.
“For Zapatero, its bad timing, said Vanessa Rossi,
associate fellow with the International Economics Program at
London-based Chatham House. “The downturn was a bit of a time
bomb waiting to happen.
Blaming Government
Almost 70 percent of Spaniards think the governments
handling of the economy is to blame for the softening real-estate
market, according to a survey by real-estate Web site
Facilisimo.com this month.
The Socialists “have ruined the economic gains they
inherited and “have left an economic inheritance as bad as the
one they created in 1996, before the PP last came to power,
Rajoys party said in a Jan. 7 study. The report blamed Zapatero
for everything from rising oil prices to higher interest rates.
Zapatero responded by accusing Rajoy of fear-mongering.
Zapateros surprise 2004 victory followed by three days the
March 11 Madrid train bombings that killed 191 people. The attack
fueled outrage at the ruling Peoples Party after it initially
blamed the carnage on the Basque separatist group ETA.
Investigators concluded that Islamic extremists carried out the
attack to punish the PP for supporting the U.S.s Iraq invasion.
Questioning Election
Ever since, the Peoples Party has questioned the legitimacy
of Zapateros government. “Whats true, and undeniable, is that
March 11 won the elections for the Socialists, said Manuel
Sanchez de Diego, a professor with San Pablo CEU Universitys
Institute for Democratic Studies in Madrid.
After taking office, Zapatero tried to negotiate a
settlement with ETA, which hadnt launched a fatal attack since
May 2003. The group has killed more than 800 people in its 40-
year campaign for Basque independence from Spain and France.
The talks turned many loved ones of ETA victims into Rajoy
allies. Their anti-terror rallies have attracted a total of more
than a million people and often featured PP officials lambasting
Zapatero for negotiating, painting him a traitor to a unified
Spain.
The governments efforts resulted in a March, 2006 cease-
fire. Nine months later, ETA exploded a car bomb at Madrids
Barajas Airport, killing two. Other attacks followed, and two
Spanish police agents were killed in a shootout with ETA
militants last month. The government has stepped up police action
against the group, forcing Rajoy to temper his criticism even as
he promises to act more firmly to crush ETA.
Rajoys campaign likely will be aided by the Catholic
Church, which has strong organizational skills and has become
more politicized under Zapatero.
More than 80 percent of Spaniards identify themselves as
Roman Catholics, even as church attendance declines. The
countrys cardinals and bishops held a rally in Madrid last month
in defense of the family. Organizers estimated more than a
million people listened to church leaders slam Zapatero for
legalizing gay unions, easing divorce laws and curbing religious
education in public schools.
“This path doesnt respect our constitution, Cardinal
Agustin Garcia-Gasco, archbishop of Valencia, told the crowd.
“The path we are heading down will lead to the breakdown of our
democracy.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Ben Sills in Madrid at
