Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) — Chancellor Angela Merkels party is
in danger of losing control of Germanys financial heartland in
a state election on Jan. 27 after a campaign that may foreshadow
the 2009 national race.
In Hesse, home to Germanys banking industry and the
Frankfurt stock exchange, state Premier Roland Koch of Merkels
Christian Democratic Union is running neck-and-neck against
Andrea Ypsilanti of the Social Democrats.
The election pits the two main parties in the national
“Grand Coalition government against each other: Merkels CDU
versus Kurt Becks Social Democrats. The parties are at odds
over economic policy after jointly running Germany for more than
two years.
The CDU is ahead in national polls. In Hesse, Ypsilanti,
50, has taken the lead while touting the Social Democrats
message of spreading economic gains through a minimum wage. Koch
has focused on crime rather than the CDUs pro-business agenda.
The minimum-wage issue is “a godsend to the Social
Democrats because “voters feel theyre excluded from the
economic advance, and thats increasingly becoming a factor in
politics, said Eckart Tuchtfeld, an analyst at Commerzbank AG
in Frankfurt. “A change of government in Hesse would certainly
yield an impulse for more social spending at the national
level.
First Major Test
Hesse is one of two states going to the polls Jan. 27 in
the first major electoral test for the coalitions parties since
it came to power in November 2005. The other is Lower Saxony,
home to Volkswagen AG, Europes biggest carmaker. Those
elections will be followed by votes in the city-state of Hamburg
on Feb. 24 and in Bavaria on Sept. 28.
The four areas are home to about a third of Germanys
electorate and will offer snapshots of the parties support
before the September 2009 national election.
In Hesse, the Christian Democrats have 38 to 39 percent
support while the Social Democrats may win 37 to 38 percent, a
Jan. 22-24 Forsa poll for RTL television published today showed.
Kochs CDU had a 20-point lead in the last election, in 2003.
In Lower Saxony, polls show the CDU leading the Social
Democrats by 10 to 13 percentage points, enough to remain at the
head of its coalition government with the Free Democrats. The
CDUs edge there is in line with national polls, which have the
Social Democrats trailing Merkels party by as many as 12
percentage points.
In Hamburg, the Social Democrats have overtaken the ruling
CDU, a survey by polling company election.de released Jan. 23
showed.
`Social Justice
The Social Democrats in the three January and February
elections are campaigning on Becks “social justice program,
which includes a national minimum wage and penalties for
companies that underpay temporary employees.
Workers take-home pay nationally has trailed inflation in
every year since 2004, according to the DGB labor federation.
Just 12 percent of voters said they oppose a national minimum
wage, according to a Jan. 11 Infratest poll.
“Theres a profound feeling of dissatisfaction among
voters about the distribution of wealth in Germany, and Beck was
one of the first who jumped on the issue, said Uwe Andersen,
professor of political science at Bochum University. “This
turnabout toward greater social compassion now seems to be
mainstream political thinking.
Manufacturing Hub
The message has resonated in Hesse, which generates the
highest per-capita gross domestic product of Germanys 16
states. Its Rhine-Main industrial area, with more than 5 million
inhabitants, is Germanys second biggest manufacturing hub after
the Ruhr valley.
Even successful entrepreneur Till Hahn says Kochs
government has done little to help the “Mittelstand –
family-owned businesses like his that are the backbone of
Germanys economy. He counts a lack of company incentives and
changes to inheritance-tax laws among the disappointments of
Kochs nine years in office.
“Koch raised many hopes when he came in, especially among
private entrepreneurs, said Hahn, 70, who plans to hire more
workers this year for Glasbau Hahn, which makes glass display
cases used in museums around the world. “Weve come to learn
that a lot of it was lip service.
Koch, 49, focused his campaign on youth crime. He has
called for harsher sentences for immigrant criminals as he
sought to ride a wave of public revulsion at an attack on a
German pensioner by a Greek and a Turkish youth in the Munich
subway last month.
`Economic Competence
Merkel, 53, has tried to help her ally, highlighting a
decline in unemployment to near a 15-year low and a reduction on
Jan. 1 in corporate taxes to 29.8 percent from 38.7 percent, an
idea Koch backed. “Roland Koch has proven his economic
competence over the years, she told broadcaster Hessische
Rundfunk on Jan. 23.
Such pleas may be too late for traditional CDU supporters
like Angelika Kindt, a local director in Offenbach, east of
Frankfurt, of the BVMW federation of small and medium-sized
companies. Kindt says she voted CDU in 1999 and 2003; this time
shes backing Ypsilanti.
The CDU “has failed to encourage company start-ups,
Kindt said. “A lot of important issues have remained stalled
under Koch.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Andreas Cremer in Berlin at
