Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) — The ethnic tensions engulfing Kenya
probably wont subside until its Kikuyu rulers, led by President
Mwai Kibaki, relinquish some power and share benefits from the
tourism-dependent economys transformation into a regional trade
hub.
The Kikuyu, the biggest and most-prosperous group, have
dominated Kenya since it won independence in 1963, fueling
resentment and repeated spasms of violence. Rioters killed more
than 600 after the Kikuyu-dominated government of Kibaki, 76,
declared on Dec. 30 that he had been re-elected over Raila
Odinga, 63, a Luo.
“The conflict is taking an ethnic form, but its got its
roots in a failure of governance, rising poverty and the growing
exasperation of an extremely young population with a geriatric
bunch of leaders, said Michela Wrong, a journalist and author
of three books about Africa, including a coming one about Kenya.
Kenya is a patchwork of more than 40 ethnic groups. About
20 percent of its 32 million people are Kikuyu. Four other
groups, including the Luo and the Kalenjin, each have 10 percent
or more.
The economy used to rely on tourists, attracted by Kenyas
abundant wildlife and beaches. Now its port in Mombasa has
become East Africas main transshipment point, and the
manufacturing and service industries are thriving.
“A few years ago, Kenya was seen as a place for holidays
which sold its tea to Asia, said Razia Khan, chief Africa
economist at Standard Chartered Plc in London. “Now 42 percent
at least of Kenyas exports go to neighboring countries.
Prominent Beneficiaries
Economic growth is at an 18-year-high of 7 percent, and the
most prominent beneficiaries are Kikuyu. Among them: Jimnah
Mbaru, chairman of the Nairobi Stock Exchange; Central Bank of
Kenya Governor Njuguna Ndungu; Eddy Njoroge, chief executive
officer of Kenya Electricity Generating Co., east Africas
biggest power generator; Gerald Mahinda, CEO of East Africa
Breweries Ltd., the regions largest beer maker; and Eunice
Mbogo, head of Kenya Reinsurance Corp.
“There was generally a tendency to shower benefits and
certainly to shower jobs in the ministries and civil service on
their own tribe, Wrong said. “People saw that and resented
it.
Ethnic Rivalry
Ethnic rivalry can be traced to the 1950s, when the Kikuyu-
led Mau Mau resistance movement fought British colonialists. A
million Kikuyus were placed in detention camps by the British
and 100,000 of them died, according to the book Imperial
Reckoning: The Untold Story of Britains Gulag in Kenya, by
Harvard Universitys Caroline Elkins.
In the 1960s, Kenyas first president, Jomo Kenyatta,
oversaw a land-redistribution program that resettled many fellow
Kikuyu onto fertile farms in the wests Rift Valley formerly
owned by Europeans.
“Kikuyu farmers, pastoralists, were resettled in a land-
reform exercise, and they did better than the nomadic groups,
Khan said.
Kenyattas successor, Daniel Arap Moi, was a Kalenjin who
forged alliances with Kikuyu politicians. He was followed by
Kibaki, a Kikuyu. He came to power in 2002 after bidding for the
non-Kikuyu vote by promising to stamp out a culture of
corruption that benefited his ethnic group and to appoint Odinga
as prime minister.
Corruption
Kibaki reneged on appointing Odinga, and his anti-graft
commissioner, John Githongo, resigned and fled the country,
later implicating top government officials in a corruption
scheme. Little has changed since. Transparency International,
the Berlin-based anti-graft watchdog, last year ranked Kenya
among the worlds 24 most corrupt countries.
“The evidence of corruption has been absolutely damning,
Wrong said. “I think its amazing that Western donors are still
lending millions of dollars to a government that showed it was
planning to steal.
The recent ethnic violence is the worst in years. Unrest
during Kenyas first multiparty ballot in 1992 claimed at least
1,500 lives, and hundreds died after 1997 elections, according
to New York-based Human Rights Watch.
Vote-Rigging Allegations
Supporters of Odinga, the son of Kenyattas vice president,
were energized for the 2007 vote because he had helped defeat a
Kibaki-backed 2005 referendum to increase presidential power.
After Kibaki was declared the winner, Odinga accused the
government of rigging the vote.
“To have rolled the stone up the hill all your life, to
have had the prize in your grasp, to be fulfilling your fathers
legacy, these are not small things, Aly Khan Satchu, a Nairobi
stockbroker, said in a note to clients.
Odingas followers responded with riots targeting the
Kikuyu. “There was a feeling among a lot of Odinga supporters
that politically and economically they have been marginalized
since independence, Philippe de Pontet, an analyst at Eurasia
Group, a political-risk consulting firm, said in an interview
from Washington. “They were finally going to get their day in
the sun and that was stolen from them.
Kenyas benchmark stock index fell 7.9 percent over the
first three trading days following announcement of the election
result. The Kenyan shilling fell as much as 8.4 percent against
the dollar.
Obama Call to Odinga
Meanwhile, U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Barack
Obama, whose father was Kenyan and who still has family members
there, said he called Odinga on Jan 7. Obamas father was from
the Luo tribe, campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki said.
“What I urged was that all the leaders there, regardless
of their position on the election, tell their supporters to
stand down, to desist with the violence, the Illinois senator
told reporters yesterday in Manchester, New Hampshire. Obama
said he also plans to talk to Kibaki.
Violence subsided after police blocked opposition rallies
last week. On Jan. 7, Odinga canceled a plan for another rally
to allow Ghanaian President John Kufuor, the chairman of the
African Union, to try to negotiate an end to the crisis.
The result may be a “more ethnically diverse government
because “I dont think the opposition will be easily
appeased, de Pontet said. “If there is not a recount then
there may be a re-vote if Kibaki realizes he is going to preside
over an ungovernable country.
Stephen Bailey-Smith, head of African research at Standard
Bank Group Ltd. in London, concurs. “None of Kenyas political
ruling class really want the ethnic violence genie to be fully
released across the country, he told clients in an e-mail.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Paul Richardson in Johannesburg at
