Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) — The outcome of the first U.S.
presidential contest today in Iowa may hinge on voters like Russ
Johns, a 43-year-old car-parts assembly worker who has never
participated in a nominating caucus.
Johns signed a pledge in Keokuk on Dec. 31 to caucus for
Democrat Hillary Clinton. Whether he shows up to support the New
York senator, he said, depends on his work schedule.
Clinton and Illinois Senator Barack Obama, locked in a
three-way race with former North Carolina Senator John Edwards,
are stepping up efforts to lure politically inexperienced Iowans
to the churches, school libraries, kitchens and living rooms that
host the town-hall-style caucuses.
Edwards is betting on a different strategy: seasoned caucus-
goers. “These are hard-core people for us, said campaign
manager David Bonior. “Theyre very mature, theyre politically
skilled, theyve been to a lot of these things.
In the Republican race, former Arkansas Governor Mike
Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney also
diverge over how to muster voters. Romney, 60, has blanketed the
state with television advertising, while Huckabee, 52, is relying
on supporters to round up friends and neighbors.
Small Turnout
Working against the candidates is the typically small
turnout at the caucuses — about 125,000 Democrats and 88,000
Republicans in a state of about 3 million — and the winter
weather. That, plus the need to commit perhaps several hours to
caucusing, makes get-out-the-vote drives in Iowa a far bigger
challenge than in most states.
“Caucus-goers in Iowa are like a needle in a haystack,
said Iowa House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who is supporting
Delaware Senator Joe Biden in the Democratic race.
Obama took some time this afternoon to make a last appeal to
Iowans at the food court in a downtown Des Moines shopping
center, where roughly 400 people were eating lunch. The Illinois
senator and his wife spent 25 minutes talking to undecided
voters, shaking hands, posing for pictures and signing
autographs. The only request Obama turned down came from a man
asking him to sign a dollar bill.
“I cant sign dollar bills, Obama said, before the man
rushed to pull down a placard for Obamas signature.
The campaign staff and volunteers held signs instructing the
diners how to find their caucus site. Obama will spend the rest
of the day doing interviews, watching the returns with his family
before the caucus-night party downtown, and finally flying to
Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
Steelworkers Union
Edwards started the day with a rally at a Des Moines
Steelworkers Union hall where volunteers were using banks of
telephones to call voters.
“We are proud of the work we have done and we are not
finished with that work, said Edwards, who was wrapping up a
36-hour marathon campaign swing through Iowa.
Clinton stayed out of sight for most of the morning and has
yet to release a schedule of her plans for caucus day.
On the Republican side, there was no letup in the tense
fight between Huckabee and Romney. Huckabees campaign accused
Romneys organization of giving out inaccurate information about
caucus locations to voters for the former Arkansas governor.
“The Romney for President campaign is once again misleading
Iowans by sending incorrect precinct caucus location information
to the supporters of Republican front-runner Mike Huckabee, the
Huckabee campaign said in an e-mailed statement.
Denial
Romneys Iowa spokesman, Tim Albrecht, denied targeting
Huckabee supporters, saying the campaign had relayed faulty
information originally provided by the Iowa Republican Party. The
same locations were relayed to Romney supporters, he said.
Albrecht, who offered copies of the Iowa Republican Party
instructions, accused other campaigns, without naming which, of
using misleading tactics.
“This is a reckless and irresponsible accusation,
especially in light of the fact we have received reports from
Romney supporters who have gotten calls and inaccurate
information about the governor and caucus locations, Albrecht
said in an interview.
The top-tier candidates in both parties head into tonight
with polls showing the races a toss-up. Obama led with 31 percent
support in a Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll of Democrats. Clinton and
Edwards follow with 27 percent each. The same poll on the
Republican side showed Huckabee in the lead with 31 percent and
Romney following with 25 percent.
Different Results
By contrast, Clinton had a sizable lead in an American
Research Group poll, 34 percent to Obamas 25 percent, with 21
percent backing Edwards. Huckabee led the Republican field with
29 percent, followed by Romney with 24 percent, ARG found.
Given the nature of the contest, getting supporters to the
1,781 caucus sites across the state is a priority.
Among other efforts, Clintons campaign is pairing newcomers
with experienced participants. “The whole idea of a caucus is to
build the party, said Clinton backer Christine Vilsack, wife of
former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack. She plans to accompany her
neighborhood bank teller, a younger woman, to the caucus in their
precinct.
The campaigns also are focused on specific target groups.
Edwards, 54, who casts himself as the champion of the
working class, has courted white males and rural voters in
northeast and northwest Iowa, said Jenny Backus, a Democratic
consultant who isnt aligned with any candidate.
Obama, 46, is appealing to more educated voters, young
people and residents of bigger cities and university hubs such as
Des Moines and Cedar Rapids. Clinton, 60, wants to inspire women
to help elect the nations first female president.
`Super Volunteers
Romneys supporters include 60 paid “super volunteers who
are canvassing in Iowa, and drivers in all 99 counties, focusing
on the partys traditional suburban voters, said Albrecht.
Huckabee, who contends Romney has outspent him in Iowa 20-
to-1, said many of his supporters have connected with each other
through the Internet. “We have so many people that are going to
their very first caucus, he said in an interview. “They really
now believe the political process is about them.
While Republicans face less complex caucus rules — the
winner is chosen by an anonymous popular vote — candidates still
must motivate the party faithful to show up.
Fred Thompson, a former Tennessee senator, told about 150
Iowans in Newton on Dec. 29 that he was most worried that voters
would stay home to watch the Orange Bowl football game thats
being played tonight. He urged the women in the audience to hold
off on dinner and sports until after they attend the meetings.
“Ladies, he said, “lay down a rule in your house.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Heidi Przybyla in Des Moines at
